Hiring outpaces homebuilding – Daily News

on May1
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”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.

Buzz: Real estate’s secret sauce remains “jobs, jobs, jobs,” but California and other states continue to struggle to keep their homebuilding apace with a growing workforce.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at an often-overlooked factor behind surging home prices: job creation exceeding housing construction.

Ponder what I call a “homebuilding hole” benchmark, which compares a state’s job growth with the number of housing units permitted — both rental and for purchase — since 2010.

And then, to give a sense of scale to this shortfall, rankings were determined by the hole’s size as a share of the state’s workforce.

Topline

California builders filed permits for 1.1 million housing units from 2010 through 2022’s first quarter, according to U.S. Census Bureau stats. This might surprise you: It’s the third-largest homebuilding total nationwide behind Texas and Florida.

In the same period, California bosses added 3.1 million more workers — No. 1 among the states, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

California builders filed permits for 1.1 million housing units from 2010 through 2022’s first quarter, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Here, a construction worker works on top of a new home being built in the “Fallbrook” development by Richmond American in Riverside on Wednesday, June 21, 2017. (File photo: Stan Lim, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

That imbalance creates a California “homebuilding hole” of 2 million fewer homes created than workers added. And that hole equals 12.6% of the state’s 15.6 million workers, the No. 2 share in the nation.

This chasm is a critical reason why California home prices are up 102% since 2010, the eighth-largest increase among the states, according to a Federal Housing Finance Agency index.

Details

More hiring than building is by no means a California oddity.

Let’s look some of the nation’s largest homebuilding holes, ranked as a share of a state’s total employment. These states have some of the best-performing economies in the nation and also have solid reputations for their homebuilding prowess.

No. 1 Utah: 267,203 permits filed since 2010 (No. 15 nationally) trailing 478,600 more jobs (No. 12). That’s a 211,397 hole or 15.1% of jobs. Prices? Up 119% since 2010, No. 3.

No. 3 Idaho: 139,804 permits (No. 30 nationally) trailing 215,400 more jobs (No. 25). That’s a 75,596 hole or 11% of jobs. Prices? Up 130% since 2010, tops in the nation.

No. 4 Nevada: 180,864 permits (No. 26 nationally) trailing 317,800 more jobs (No. 20). That’s a 136,936 hole or 10.8% of jobs. Prices? Up 129% since 2010, No. 2.



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