How ridiculously unaffordable is Southern California housing?

Just think about the ubiquity of million-dollar listings across the region. My trusty spreadsheet found that 46% of all single-family houses for sale in September were priced at $1 million or more, according to statistics from the California Association of Realtors.

That’s 5,588 of September’s 12,074 listings seeking seven figures. And 24% of the region’s inventory is asking $2 million-plus. And 16% were listed at $3 million or more.

Want something in six figures? Just 6,486 to choose from.

Daunting details

Look at this huge ownership hurdle, by county. The closer to the coast, the more million-dollar houses you’ll find. That helps to explain a population exodus inland – or out of state.

But asking seven figures isn’t just concentrated in ocean-proximate locales in 2023 …

Orange County: 1,328 million-plus listings or 84% of inventory. And 44% of those houses for sale run $2 million-plus while 29% ask $3 million or more.

Los Angeles County: 3,288 seven-figure listings – 66% – with 38% at $2 million-plus and 26% at $3 million or more.

Riverside County: 675 seven-figure listings – 23% – with 8% at $2 million-plus and 4% at $3 million or more.

San Bernardino County: 297 seven-figure listings – 11% – with 3% at $2 million-plus, and 2% at $3 million or more.

It’s a statewide issue, too, with 2,427 seven-figure listings across California. That’s 39% of all listings with 19% of what’s on the market priced at $2 million-plus, and 12% at $3 million or more.

Pocketbook pain

California houses are selling at a 241,000-a-year pace – 41% below an average dating to 1990.

Why? Peek at estimated house payments that seven-figure houses generate, assuming the current 7.8% rate on a 30-year mortgage with a 20% downpayment and payments equalling one-third of income.

$1 million houses: $5,800 a month – and that’s if you have $200,000 for the downpayment – requiring a $209,000 household income to qualify.

$2 million: $11,500 a month with $400,000 down, requiring $414,000 income to qualify.

$3 million: $17,300 a month with $600,000 down, requiring $623,000 income to qualify.

And the share of families earning $200,000 or more in 2022? In Orange County, it’s 23%. LA, 15%. Riverside, 12%. San Bernardino, 10%.

Locally speaking

Seven-figure houses are broadly common across Southern California, according to pricing within 128 communities tracked by the Realtors. Let’s look at these numbers …

69: Communities with a seven-figure median listing price – that’s 54%.

114: Communities with at least one seven-figure listing – or 89%.

85: Communities with houses for sale between $2 million at $2.99 million – or 66%.

73: Communities with houses asking $3 million or more – or 57%.

Location. Location. Location.

And $1 million is a relative bargain in some cities. Southern California had 28 communities with median asking prices exceeding $2 million in September …

Beverly Hills: $9.5 million with 165 7-figure listings – 88% at $3 million or more.

Malibu: $8 million with 164 7-figure listings – 87% at $3 million or more.

Laguna Beach: $6.3 million with 112 7-figure listings – 87% at $3 million or more.

Newport Beach: $5.9 million with 180 7-figure listings – 85% at $3 million or more.

La Canada Flintridge: $5 million with 21 7-figure listings – 67% at $3 million or more.

Santa Monica: $4.9 million with 64 7-figure listings – 80% at $3 million or more.

Calabasas: $4.5 million with 42 7-figure listings – 60% at $3 million or more.

Dana Point: $4.1 million with 64 7-figure listings – 59% at $3 million or more.

Manhattan Beach: $4 million with 58 7-figure listings – 78% at $3 million or more.

Hermosa Beach: $3.8 million with 21 7-figure listings – 52% at $3 million or more.

Palos Verdes Estates: $3.7 million with 41 7-figure listings – 63% at $3 million or more.

Villa Park: $3.2 million with 7 7-figure listings – 57% at $3 million or more.

Westlake Village: $3 million with 36 7-figure listings – 47% at $3 million or more.

Agoura Hills: $3 million with 18 7-figure listings – 44% at $3 million or more.

San Juan Capistrano: $2.7 million with 32 7-figure listings – 41% at $3 million or more.

Arcadia: $2.7 million with 71 7-figure listings – 44% at $3 million or more.

Coto De Caza: $2.6 million with 26 7-figure listings – 42% at $3 million or more.

Rolling Hills Estates: $2.6 million with 6 7-figure listings – 50% at $3 million or more.

Seal Beach: $2.6 million with 19 7-figure listings – 32% at $3 million or more.

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West Hollywood: $2.6 million with 18 7-figure listings – 28% at $3 million or more.

Ladera Ranch: $2.5 million with 13 7-figure listings – 46% at $3 million or more.

Topanga: $2.5 million with 23 7-figure listings – 30% at $3 million or more.

Irvine: $2.3 million with 109 7-figure listings – 33% at $3 million or more.

Laguna Niguel: $2.3 million with 46 7-figure listings – 30% at $3 million or more.

North Tustin: $2.3 million with 20 7-figure listings – 15% at $3 million or more.

San Clemente: $2.2 million with 92 7-figure listings – 33% at $3 million or more.

Rancho Palos Verdes: $2.1 million with 43 7-figure listings – 19% at $3 million or more.

Indian Wells: $2.1 million with 31 7-figure listings – 29% at $3 million or more.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com