Retailers Tapestry, Capri Holdings, L Brands, PVH may have hit peaks

on Oct2
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Some upscale retailers have checked out of September with impressive gains.

Tapestry, Capri Holdings, L Brands and PVH all surged double digits in the past month, but Oppenheimer head of technical analysis Ari Wald doesn’t see the climb continuing.

“What stands out to us when looking at these apparel stocks is just really how broadly weak they’ve been across the board,” Wald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “A lot of these names [have been] rallying from these deep oversold conditions, and when you get these rallies in a downtrend, we define them as your near-term opportunities to sell long-term weakness.”

Wald says one name in particular, PVH, is showing signs of a downturn.

“The stock gapped down pretty meaningfully in late May, and continued to slide into its August low. We think that’s the dominant trend. It’s bounced back since then into its 100-day average, finding some selling pressure there at $90. I think you’re at risk to see that downtrend resume, as it stands,” he said.

Quint Tatro, president and founder of Joule Financial, agrees it’s not looking great for this group of stocks.

“The opportunity is that if you’re trapped in these longs to get out after we’ve seen a little short covering rally in these names. These are dead-cat bounces at best. They’ve been in the trash heap. There’s no reason to venture into names like this until you see a real turnaround in earnings and cash flow, and we don’t see that yet,” said Tatro.

He recommends sticking with the names that have been working, like Walmart and Target.

“Those are great companies with unbelievable balance sheets, paying great dividends, so I think you have to avoid trying to pick a bottom in a stock and just stick with what is working — which is the big names in the right areas,” said Tatro.

Walmart is up 5% in the past three months, and Target has climbed 20%. The XRT retail ETF is down 3%.


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