JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman cut China GDP forecast a few times this year

on Jul24
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Workers load goods for export onto a crane at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China June 7, 2019.

Reuters

BEIJING – International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.

That’s according to CNBC analysis of the firms’ notes. JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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The U.S. investment bank most recently cut its China GDP forecast in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously.

That came alongside cuts this month by Citi and Morgan Stanley to 5%.

The average prediction among six firms studied by CNBC now stands at 5.1%, close to the “around 5%” target Beijing announced in March.

Citi’s latest forecast marks the firm’s fourth change this year. Morgan Stanley has only adjusted its forecast once since it was set in January.

During that same period, Nomura changed its forecast four times, while UBS adjusted it three times and Goldman Sachs changed forecasts twice.

China wants to move to a new growth model, HSBC says

The investment banks mostly revised their forecasts higher early this year after China’s initial rebound, following three years of strict Covid controls.

Quarter-on-quarter revisions 

Non-official data

Institutional predictions

Looking beyond 2023

Although businesses and investors have expressed uncertainty about China’s near-term economic trajectory, analysts expect growth in the world’s second-largest economy will still pick up in the longer term.

“Overall, there is a case emerging for a cyclical rebound in China’s economy in early 2024, even without any meaningful policy support in the second half of 2023,” the Rhodium analysts said.

They said that given four quarters, a steady household consumption recovery should help boost service sector employment, while industrial inventories will likely need restocking down the road.



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